This year has been unprecedented in many ways, not least because Australia’s first mandatory new-vehicle CO2 emissions legislation came into effect, and at least half a dozen new Chinese auto brands were launched locally.
But the full effects of both those major developments are yet to be felt, so 2026 will be a litmus test for the automotive industry, for those and a variety of other reasons.
However, there are many more issues facing the Australian new-vehicle market than just fresh Chinese brands and the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, and there are always a few surprises.
We don’t have a crystal ball, but here are some of our predictions for the new year.
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Alborz Fallah
Some legacy brands will realise that Australia is not for them and begin plans to pull out.
Without naming names, it’s very evident that some Japanese and European brands are in serious trouble in Australia (and globally), and they are being decimated on all fronts.
If you are a car company that makes no appealing cars in this extremely competitive market, and you wish to charge more than the Chinese, your lifespan in our market will be very, very limited.
Marton Pettendy
With the addition of at least six new Chinese auto brands to an already-saturated auto market this year, and several more to come next year, some of them – and some of the more established marques – could well be forced to shut up shop in 2026.
But the inexorable rise up the pecking order of big Chinese brands like BYD, Chery and GWM, each of which has ambitious local sales and market share targets, should continue on the back of their relentless new-product onslaughts.
As a result, market leaders like Toyota, Ford and Mazda will likely be left with a smaller piece of the overall pie – and of the lucrative ute segment, which by the end of next year will have more competitors and a more diverse range of options than Australians have ever had access to before.
William Stopford
The onslaught of Chinese brands isn’t over. The Chinese domestic market remains cutthroat, and automakers are looking to export markets in search of profits. And while our market is a lot smaller than, say, Europe or the US, there are no pesky tariffs to contend with.
Chinese brands are largely already building cars to meet our safety standards, and they almost universally have the same hubris that they can unseat brands that have been here for decades.
Well, I not only predict multiple as-yet unconfirmed Chinese brands will come here in 2026, but I also predict the market share of Australia’s top brand – Toyota – will barely budge.
Sure, smaller, weaker players will need to watch out, but we could be reaching a point where the Chinese brands have inflicted enough damage on them and will start eating each other.
All the while, Toyota will continue sitting pretty, at least for a while yet, helped by its huge dealership network, strong reputation, and legion of often conservative, rusted-on buyers.
The Chinese have stormed into the top 10 but it remains to be seen how long it’ll take for one of their brands to crack the top three… especially when they’re now fighting with each other.
James Wong
Australia’s new emissions regulations and pending free trade agreements lead me to believe that the European brands might make a strong comeback in our market next year.
Given pricing and regulatory pressure (or lack thereof) have long been a barrier for the Euro brands here, we could see the gaps shrink between the Europeans and Asian brands in 2026 – and it’s already happening.
The fact that Skoda, for example, can bring in the Enyaq for less than an equivalent Toyota or even some Chinese-sourced competition is frankly insane. And as other Japanese and Korean players are forced to hike prices due to factors like Euro 6 emissions mandates and the like, we could see a shift in the market.
Renault has made great inroads back home with its affordable electric and hybrid options, and the Volkswagen Group has a slew of new products on the way. Not to mention BMW, which is already knocking on the top 10 of the Australian EV sales race.
I’ll be interested to see where the market is standing in 12 months’ time.
Damion Smy
BYD cracks the Australian top five. Toyota on top with a reduced margin. Several newer brands fold. Federal government winds back NVES after pressure from automakers. Mustang GT gets axed (buy one now). Toyota wins Bathurst. Piastri F1 becomes champ.
Ben Zachariah
More turmoil in the auto industry, born from tariffs, supply-chain issues, geopolitical disputes, and an ever-growing, ever-more-competent and confident China.
We may even see some big legacy car companies close their doors, while others could exit the Australian market due to increasing pressure from newcomer brands. Citroen may only have been the beginning.
Josh Nevett
The return of physical controls to car interiors. Minimalism is all well and good until it compromises functionality, which is exactly what has happened with new car interiors. By burying key vehicle functions such as the climate controls in a screen, manufacturers have made cars more distracting and therefore more dangerous than they ought to be.
Thankfully, it seems that some of the bigger automakers have listened to our incessant complaints. Volkswagen has committed to bringing back dash switches for future models, while BMW’s head of ADAS recently told CarExpert: “We have an eye on this. We see that the longer you take to press a button, the more your eyes are off the road, and the more dangerous things become.” Australian independent vehicle safety authority ANCAP has also addressed this with its new safety testing protocols, which reward physical buttons for important driver controls like the horn, indicators, hazard lights, windscreen wipers and headlights. With that in mind, here’s hoping that buttons and switches make a comeback in 2026.
Max Davies
Brands will have to shape up or ship out. A plethora of Chinese brands entered the Australian market in 2025, and while some probably won’t last, others are shaking things up.
Brands like MG and GWM are prime examples of what I’m getting at. Both were relatively early to the Australian market among their compatriots, but have since established vastly different approaches.
MG quickly skyrocketed up the sales charts with very cheap vehicles. Despite feedback and criticism, the consensus among media is that some of its newest models still need some finessing, even if they are improving.
GWM, meanwhile, received much the same feedback on its vehicles and responded by establishing permanent residence at the former Holden proving ground at Lang Lang in Victoria.
Local ride-and-handling tunes for affordable Chinese cars? Yes please, and kudos for making it happen.
As time goes on, it’s efforts like GWM’s that hint at whether a brand is in for the long haul. And when it comes to new brands, players like GAC – which has co-developed vehicles with Toyota – are already receiving relatively high praise at launch.
How can brands like these not be an issue for others that appear to be resting on their laurels? Keep in mind that’s just as applicable to several non-Chinese brands, too, as none of the established players are immune to being outpaced, outclassed, and overshadowed.
Sean Lander
Out with the new, in with the new – we will see a number of newcomer brands fizzle and die, only to be replaced by similarly shaped and sized brands offering the same thing with slightly different trimming.
The Chinese car market is so big that they can afford to have things fail here, where the more traditional marques can’t.
Expect to see some of the 2024/25 arrivals disappear and be replaced by another oddly named brand. Oh, and ute sales will continue to dominate.
