Utes have been the nation’s top-selling new vehicles for the past nine years, but Toyota Australia thinks an influx of new ute models could scatter sales and clear the way for popular SUVs – led by its own RAV4 – to take charge.
The Toyota HiLux was the first light commercial vehicle to become Australia’s favourite new model, in 2016, before its seven-year reign at the top of the local auto market was ended by the Ford Ranger in 2023.
Last year, the Ranger notched a near-record 62,593 sales, followed by the HiLux (53,499) and the Isuzu D-Max (30,194), which placed third and fourth in the market respectively.
Splitting the difference in second was Australia’s most popular SUV, the Toyota RAV4 (58,718), thanks to stronger supply and demand for the mid-sized hybrid SUV. That trend continued into January 2025, leading Toyota to believe the RAV4 could soon claim the overall market crown from utes.
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“[In January] once again, RAV4 led the way – the seventh month in a row it has been Australia’s best-selling vehicle,” said Toyota Australia sales, marketing and franchise operations chief Sean Hanley.
“And of course, naturally, I would think this does beg the question – could an SUV become Australia’s best-selling vehicle? Or maybe we should put it another way: have we in fact reached what I call ‘peak ute’?
“The answer to both questions, I think, is very likely.”
Despite the imminent arrival of Kia’s first ute, the Tasman, Mr Hanley believes the pickup segment won’t grow but instead become more fragmented.
“We know that ute buyers can look forward to having much greater choice available to them, but despite that total ute sales are likely, I think, to remain fairly static, and a more fragmented segment will make it increasingly difficult for a single model to dominate the sales charts,” he said.
Alongside the stalwarts of the ute segment – including the Ranger, HiLux, D-Max, Mazda BT-50, and Mitsubishi Triton, among others – is a wide range of new models that has either just arrived or is in the process of making its way to Australian showrooms.
These include the Tasman, BYD Shark 6 plug-in hybrid (PHEV), JAC T9, GWM Cannon and Cannon Alpha PHEV, and a potential ute from MG. Ford is also set to bolster its Ranger lineup with a PHEV powertrain, and a number of EV utes are also on the horizon.
There are also the full-size US-built pickups like the RAM 1500, Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-150 and Toyota’s own Tundra, all of which offer additional choice to customers but are more expensive than the popular mid-size dual-cabs.
While the HiLux continues to hold a strong position on the Australian sales charts, Mr Hanley has backed the RAV4 as Toyota’s primary candidate for Australia’s best-selling vehicle.
“With the ute under challenge as Australia’s most popular vehicle, it is more than possible, I think, [that] an SUV, perhaps even our very own RAV4, may very well rise to the top of the sales charts within the next couple of years,” he said.
“Watch that space very carefully as we progress.”
As a whole, Toyota dominated new vehicle sales once again in 2024. The Japanese brand enjoyed a year-on-year sales increase of 12.1 per cent to record a total of 241,296 registrations, dwarfing runner-up Ford on 100,170 despite its increase of 14.1 per cent.
The closest rival for the RAV4, which found 58,718 new homes in 2024, was the Mitsubishi Outlander, which ranked behind the D-Max with 27,613 sales. Ford’s ute-based Everest was next with 26,494 sales.
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